China controls the majority of key global clean energy manufacturing supply chains – except for heat pumps. In 2023, it held a share of c. 58% in electrolyzers, c. 62% in wind, and even c. 82% in solar/PV and c. 84% in batteries.

In key refined materials a similar but even slightly more pronounced picture emerges with China accounting for the majority in all but copper. In 2023, China held a c. 63% share in lithium, c. 77% in cobalt, c. 92% in rare earths, and c. 97% in graphite.

With Chris Wright as the new U.S. Secretary of Energy, if confirmed by the Senate, we clearly expect a significant focus on U.S. fossil fuel dominance and regulatory rollbacks, e.g. removal of oil and gas drilling regulations and by expediting ending the moratorium on LNG exports (see prior posts). This will likely further strengthen U.S. fossil fuel dominance adding to its existing position as the world’s largest oil producer and the biggest natural gas producer. Shouldn’t the U.S. – and Europe – work hard on maintaining a relevant position at least in heat pumps and possibly in electrolyzers as well?

This will require coordinated public-private partnerships, strategic investments in domestic manufacturing capabilities, robust policy frameworks, and more to encourage innovation and attract capital. A balanced and resilient energy supply chain position is not just a matter of energy transition — it is also a cornerstone of energy independence and economic competitiveness.

Source: IEA analysis based on IEA (2024c) and (2024d)